The Hook

Dylan Jovine’s Behind the Markets is back with a geothermal energy pitch and a countdown clock. “The Last Energy Revolution Starts August 18th,” warns the latest teaser, and if you don’t act before that date, you’ll supposedly miss out on gains of “1,000% or more.”

The ad opens with cinematic flair: a drilling crew in Beaver County, Utah, punching through 15,765 feet of solid granite in 16 days, a job the DOE said should have taken 64. Google, Berkshire Hathaway, and the Pentagon all wrote checks. The DOE reclassified this energy source alongside oil and nuclear. “Project Forge” is the code name. Early investors, Jovine says, could see the kind of returns that made the Rockefeller fortune.

If this sounds familiar, it should. Jovine ran a nearly identical version of this ad with a “July 4” deadline earlier this year. When July 4 came and went without a geothermal revolution, the deadline simply moved six weeks forward. As Stock Gumshoe’s Travis Johnson puts it: “the dates in these ads are mostly there to serve as a deadline, nudging you to hurry up and pull out your credit card.”

But that doesn’t mean the underlying idea is worthless. Geothermal energy is having a real moment. Let’s separate the pitch from the pick.

The Big Claim

Jovine makes several connected arguments:

First, that enhanced geothermal systems, pumping fluids into deep hot rocks to create reservoirs of super-heated water for power generation, represent the only renewable energy source that works around the clock. “Hydrogen cracked the efficiency equation on paper and failed completely on cost and availability. Wind and solar crack cost, but they disappear at sunset. Nuclear delivers availability at a price that bankrupts projects.” Only geothermal, he argues, delivers all three pillars simultaneously.

Second, that federal policy has tilted the playing field. The Trump administration’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” killed tax credits for new wind and solar projects starting July 4, 2026, while geothermal retained government backing. “Every utility, every power developer, every data center operator looking for clean energy with full government backing has exactly one choice: Geothermal, unlocked at Project Forge.”

Third, that one company, Ormat Technologies (ORA), owns the entire geothermal value chain and is positioned to dominate. Jovine’s language: “From the heat beneath the earth to the power on the grid, this company controls the entire chain.”

The promised returns: “1,000%, even 3,000%.” The comparison? Spindletop, the 1901 Texas oil gusher that launched the modern petroleum industry.

The Mechanism

Jovine walks through a specific narrative to sell this. Let’s break it down.

The technology: Enhanced geothermal isn’t new. Iceland has been using geothermal for generations where the heat is close to the surface. The innovation is going deeper, 15,000+ feet, and using fracking-era drilling techniques to create reservoirs in hot, dry rock. Pump water down, let it heat up, bring it back up to spin turbines. Repeat forever because the Earth’s core keeps generating heat.

The company: Ormat Technologies, founded in Israel in 1965 by a husband-and-wife team, is the only geothermal company that designs, manufactures, builds, operates, and owns its own power plants. It runs facilities across the US, Kenya, Guatemala, Honduras, and elsewhere. Revenue just hit $990 million and the company projects more than $1.1 billion in 2026. Ormat has paid a dividend every quarter for nearly two decades.

The catalyst: “20 of 24 wells for the world’s largest geothermal project are already completed. A 400 megawatt transmission line inherited from a retired coal plant is waiting to carry this power to the grid. The first 100 megawatts go live in October.”

Here’s a key detail the promo glosses over: that Utah project, the one with the dramatic drilling story, belongs to Fervo Energy (FRVO), not Ormat. Fervo is the startup that IPO’d in May 2026. ORA may supply equipment or expertise to that project, but the headlines Jovine uses to open his pitch belong to a different company. Ormat is the established player; Fervo is the growth story.

The Real Pick

Ormat Technologies (ORA) trades around $103, with a market cap of about $6.4 billion. The tease price when this promo was first analyzed on July 6 was $112.56, meaning the stock is down roughly 8% since the ad started circulating.

Ticker Company Recent Price Tease Price (Jul 6) 52-Week Range
ORA Ormat Technologies ~$103 $112.56 $84 – $146

ORA reported Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, and they were solid. Revenue rose 10.6% to $258.8 million, beating analyst estimates by nearly 10%. The energy storage segment jumped 195% year-over-year. Management raised full-year guidance to $1.15–$1.2 billion in revenue and $630–$650 million in adjusted EBITDA.

Those are good numbers. But here’s the catch: the stock already trades at roughly 50–60x forward earnings. Even after falling 20% from its May/June highs around $146, this is an expensive stock, and one with a very long history of disappointing investors when enthusiasm fades.

Does the Math Check Out?

Let’s work through what “1,000% gains” would actually require.

At $103 per share with about 62 million shares outstanding, ORA’s market cap is about $6.4 billion. A 1,000% return means $1,133 per share and a $70 billion market cap. To justify that valuation, even at a generous 30x earnings multiple, ORA would need roughly $2.3 billion in annual earnings, nearly double its current annual revenue.

Could geothermal grow into that? Possibly, over a very long time. Geothermal currently provides about 0.4% of US electricity generation. If enhanced geothermal becomes mainstream and ORA captures a dominant share, the opportunity is real. But “over a very long time” doesn’t match the urgency of an August 18 countdown clock.

Consider this: ORA has been public for decades. Its revenue just crossed $1 billion for the first time. The company has never, in its entire 60-year history, sustained consistent double-digit revenue growth. The stock surges when geothermal is trendy and gives back the gains when the narrative cools. In 2021 it spiked, then fell. In 2026 it spiked to $146, then fell to $103.

The energy storage business, up 195% last quarter, is actually more interesting right now as a growth driver. But that has nothing to do with geothermal. It’s battery storage, a separate business line that faces competition from Tesla, Fluence, and others.

What They Got Right

  1. Geothermal has real momentum. Big Tech needs round-the-clock clean power for data centers, and geothermal is the only renewable that delivers 24/7 without fuel costs. Google signed a 15-year, 150 MW geothermal contract in February 2026. Meta partnered on next-generation technology that ORA has exclusive rights to commercialize. This isn’t imaginary demand.

  2. ORA is genuinely the safest geothermal bet. The company survived every geothermal bust since the early 2000s while competitors went bankrupt or got absorbed (often into Ormat itself). If geothermal becomes a major energy source, ORA is well-positioned. The partnership with SLB, the world’s largest oil field services company, gives it drilling capabilities few pure-play renewables companies can match.

  3. The Q2 2026 numbers were good. Revenue up 10.6%, beating estimates. Guidance raised. Energy storage revenue nearly tripled. After years of flat results, there are signs of life.

  4. Federal policy genuinely favors geothermal. Killing wind and solar tax credits while keeping geothermal support is a real competitive shift. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it removes headwinds that competitors face.

  5. Dylan Jovine is a seasoned analyst. Jovine has been running Behind the Markets for years. The service is affordable at $99/year. His gold war thesis has substance, and he doesn’t shy away from making detailed arguments investors can evaluate.

What They Got Wrong

  1. August 18 is a made-up deadline. Stock Gumshoe couldn’t find any geothermal event, earnings report, or regulatory decision tied to that date. ORA already reported earnings on August 5. The International Geothermal Convention starts August 19 in Jakarta, not exactly a market-moving event for a Nevada-based power company. The date exists to create urgency. As we noted in another Stansberry gold teardown, countdown clocks in newsletter promos are conversion mechanisms, not market signals.

  2. The Spindletop comparison doesn’t work. Spindletop was a 1901 oil gusher that launched companies like Gulf Oil and Texaco from scratch. ORA is a $6.4 billion company with 60 years of history and $1 billion in revenue. You don’t “discover” something that’s been publicly traded for decades.

  3. “1,000% gains” is pure marketing at current valuation. At 50–60x forward earnings, there’s no room for multiple expansion. You’d need extraordinary revenue growth AND for the market to maintain a premium valuation, simultaneously. That combination happens roughly never.

  4. Geothermal enthusiasm follows a predictable boom-bust cycle. ORA was pitched in 2008, 2017, 2019, 2022, and now 2026. Each time the stock surged on the narrative. Each time it gave back the gains when investors remembered that geothermal growth is slow and capital-intensive. So far 2026 is following the same pattern: up to $146, down to $103.

  5. Energy storage is doing the heavy lifting. The 195% jump in storage revenue is what powered Q2 results, but that’s the battery business, not geothermal. The core electricity segment grew a modest 5.8%. If the geothermal “revolution” were really here, the geothermal business would be the growth engine, not the sidecar.

  6. Fervo Energy’s project, not Ormat’s, is the promo’s visual. The dramatic drilling story, the crew punching through granite in Utah at four times the pace the DOE expected, that’s Fervo’s project. ORA may participate in that work, but the startup is the main character in the story Jovine is telling. That matters because investors buying ORA expecting Fervo-like growth may be disappointed. Fervo is pre-revenue and speculative; ORA is established and slow-growing. Different investment profiles entirely.

The Verdict

Ormat Technologies is a reasonable company having a decent year. The geothermal story has real tailwinds from AI power demand, supportive federal policy, and Big Tech’s appetite for 24/7 clean energy. ORA is the most established geothermal company in the world, has a growing energy storage business, and just raised guidance. If you want geothermal exposure and want to sleep at night, ORA is the best way to get it.

But at 50–60x forward earnings, with a 20-year track record of boom-bust cycles, this is not a “buy now before August 18” story. The stock has already fallen 30% from its highs this year. It could easily fall further if investor enthusiasm for geothermal follows its historical pattern and fades. Wait for a pullback, ideally below $90, where the valuation starts to look more reasonable relative to the company’s actual growth rate.

The “Last Energy Revolution” framing is good marketing. The actual investment thesis is slower, steadier, and requires more patience than any countdown clock can accommodate.

This is not financial advice. NewsletterVetter has no position in any stock mentioned. Per Stock Gumshoe’s disclosure: Travis Johnson owns shares of Google parent Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway, both referenced in the promo. Behind the Markets offers a 30-day refund period and makes no guarantee of investment returns.