The Second Window: The Moon’s Phone Company

The Hook

Dylan Jovine, the founder of Behind the Markets, is pitching something he calls “The Second Window.” The setup is simple on its surface: a pile of “frozen SpaceX wealth” is about to “come off the leash” on December 8, 2026, the day the standard 180-day SpaceX IPO lockup expires. And when that money starts moving, Jovine argues, it will not spread itself evenly across the market. He believes it will “flood into one $14 stock.” The pitch is classic second-order thinking. Don’t chase SpaceX itself, which is already huge. Buy the smaller, earlier-stage name that the newly wealthy will supposedly rotate into next. The details are in our Motley Fool’s ‘The Company Netflix Fears’ — The Gaming St… article.

The offer is Behind the Markets for $49 a year with a six-month refund. That is a modest price for a newsletter, and the refund gives a skeptical reader room to see the full thesis before fully committing. The reveal, as teased, lands on a lunar communications company called Intuitive Machines, ticker LUNR.

The Big Claim

The headline promise is not subtle. “A 2nd WAVE OF NEW SPACE MILLIONAIRES Will Be Minted Starting December 8th… I believe it will flood into one $14 stock.” Jovine’s framing is that the first wave of space wealth came from owning early SpaceX and the other private space names, and that a second wave arrives the moment insiders and early employees are allowed to sell their locked shares.

Behind the curtain, he points to a company that holds what he describes as “a first-of-its-kind contract in American history,” for “a small constellation of satellites parked in orbit around the Moon.” That contract is real. It is the NASA Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems award, known as LCRNS. The idea being sold is that this company is the Moon’s equivalent of a phone company, the infrastructure layer that every future lunar mission will need to route its data and find its way.

The Mechanism

Here is the actual chain the promo is selling, and it is worth walking through because parts of it are genuinely interesting.

SpaceX’s IPO was one of the largest ever, and its employees and early backers hold an enormous amount of stock that was locked up for the standard 180 days. On December 8, that lockup expires. That is the “Second Window.” Jovine’s thesis is that the people who just became liquid will look for the next SpaceX, and that a meaningful slice of that money will rotate into a small lunar infrastructure company rather than into another mega-cap.

The target of that rotation, per the promo, is the company building the Moon’s communications backbone. To understand why that matters, it helps to zoom out on the lunar economy. NASA has spent the last several years deliberately shifting away from building everything in-house and toward buying services from commercial vendors. That is the same procurement model that made SpaceX and other launch providers possible. For cargo and science delivery to the Moon, the agency runs the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, or CLPS, under which private landers carry instruments to the surface. Intuitive Machines is a CLPS participant, and in February 2024 its Odysseus lander became the first commercial spacecraft to soft-land on the Moon.

The communications layer is the next piece of that commercial pivot. The Moon has no GPS and no cell tower grid. Any serious lunar economy, whether it is rovers, landers, or eventually crewed bases, needs a way to navigate and a way to relay data back to Earth without requiring a direct line of sight. That is what LCRNS is for: a network of relay satellites parked in lunar orbit. Whoever builds that network sits at a natural chokepoint, because every later mission will pay to use it. That is the real, defensible substance behind the pitch. Intuitive Machines won the first large piece of it, a five-year contract, extendable, with a maximum value of $4.82 billion.

What is far less real is the specific “flood into LUNR” mechanism. A lockup expiring means insiders are allowed to sell. It does not mean they are required to sell, and it does not route their proceeds into any particular small cap.

The Real Pick

Prices are from Polygon as of the October 27, 2026 close. Market capitalization is roughly $1.87 billion.

One detail is worth flagging right away. The promo keeps calling this “one $14 stock,” but the tease price in the Stock Gumshoe table is $10.78, and the stock closed at $11.56 on October 27. The “$14” framing appears to be either stale or a reference to a moment in the presentation that no longer matches where LUNR trades. Either way, the ticker is Intuitive Machines, and the “$14” label overstates the actual price.

Does the Math Check Out

This is where the thesis gets thin, so let’s separate the two claims and stress-test each one.

First, the “$633 billion” number. That figure is the paper value of the locked SpaceX shares, not cash sitting in a pool waiting to be reinvested. When a lockup expires, some insiders sell to diversify, some sell a little to cover taxes, and many hold because they still believe in the company. The entire notional sum does not convert into buying power on December 8, and most of it either stays put or moves into boring, diversified assets. Calling it “frozen wealth” that will “flood” into a single stock confuses a balance-sheet value with a future cash flow.

Second, and more important, there is no mechanism that routes SpaceX insider proceeds into LUNR specifically. Put yourself in the shoes of the newly liquid investor the promo is describing. A SpaceX engineer with a large position that just unlocked has a concentrated, single-company risk. The textbook move is to diversify out of it, not to roll it into another concentrated, high-risk bet in the same sector. A prudent person pays the tax bill, keeps a core position, and spreads the rest across index funds and diversified holdings. Chasing a cash-burning small cap at a single-digit-billion valuation is roughly the opposite of that. Wealthy new investors might pick up a space stock on the side as a satellite position, but the idea that $633 billion “floods” into one name assumes a coordinated, concentrated rotation that has no economic or behavioral basis. If a fraction of a fraction of that money trickled into LUNR, it would be a ripple, not a flood.

Then there is the business itself. Intuitive Machines is a real company with a real contract, but it is also a lunar-lander firm that burns cash as it works toward milestones. The LCRNS contract is meaningful backlog, but it is long-dated, milestone-dependent, and paid out over years, not on December 8. The lockup date and the contract value are two separate facts that the promo stitches together into a story. One does not cause the other.

Finally, the track record. Stock Gumshoe has followed Jovine’s picks over roughly a decade and found that about one in three of his fifty or so calls beat the market, with Palantir standing out as the clear winner. That is not a record of fraud; it is a mixed one. And it matters here, because this particular pitch hangs on a single, high-conviction rotation thesis rather than on the quality of the underlying business.

The Verdict

Skip this one. The underlying company is real, and the lunar communications thesis has genuine long-run merit, but the promo’s central mechanism, that SpaceX’s lockup expiration funnels $633 billion into LUNR, does not hold up. If you are interested in Intuitive Machines, evaluate it on its own merits as a cash-burning lunar infrastructure company with a large but long-dated NASA contract. Do not buy it because of a December 8 wealth transfer. That date is a story, not a catalyst.

What They Got Right

• The LCRNS contract is real. Intuitive Machines holds the Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems award, a five-year, extendable contract with a maximum value of $4.82 billion. It is genuinely a first-of-its-kind NASA commercial services contract for lunar infrastructure.
• The second-order framing is clever and directionally sound. Buying the picks-and-shovels supplier to a boom, rather than the boom itself, is a legitimate and time-tested investing pattern.
• The lunar communications bottleneck is a real one. The Moon has no navigation or relay grid, and whoever builds it captures a genuine infrastructure chokepoint. NASA’s shift to buying commercial services is a real, multi-year trend, and Intuitive Machines is a direct beneficiary.
• The pricing is fair by newsletter standards. $49 a year with a six-month refund is not an aggressive upsell, and the refund reduces the downside for a subscriber who wants to read the full thesis.

What They Got Wrong

• The “$633 billion floods into LUNR” mechanism is narrative, not finance. A lockup expiring releases shares for sale; it does not route the proceeds into any specific small cap, let alone this one.
• The “$14 stock” label is already off. The tease price was $10.78 and the stock closed at $11.56 on October 27. Calling it a “$14 stock” overstates where it actually trades.
• The promo treats paper share value as reinvestable cash. $633 billion is the notional value of locked shares, and most of it will stay put or diversify rather than chase a small space stock.
• The catalyst date does the heavy lifting. The presentation leans on December 8 as the moment everything changes, but the contract pays out over years and the lockup expiration has no direct line to LUNR’s share price.

Compliance Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. NewsletterVetter has no position in any stock mentioned.

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