The pick behind “The Arsenal”
Dylan Jovine’s “The Arsenal: My #1 Defense Stock for the Rearmament Decade” promo does not name its pick in the free materials, but the company is not hard to identify. It is Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT), the Israeli defense contractor that trades on the Nasdaq and Tel Aviv exchanges. The stock is the centerpiece of the rearmament thesis, and the promo’s headline fact is that Elbit’s order backlog has “swollen past $30 billion for the first time in its history,” a figure StockGumshoe confirmed as true.
Elbit is best known to casual observers through its role in Israel’s famous missile-defense systems. It is a key supplier to Iron Dome and David’s Sling, and it works on laser counter-weapon programs and cyber defense. We explain the Iron Dome piece of that story in our Iron Dome stocks piece, and the David’s Sling side in our David’s Sling explainer.
What the company actually does
The missile-defense systems get the headlines, but they are not where the earnings come from today. Elbit’s biggest earnings driver is land-based defense: artillery and shells, where the depletion of Western munitions in Ukraine has forced governments to restock at scale. The company makes a broad range of land systems, electronics, munitions, and unmanned platforms, and it layers cyber defense on top.
The customer base is more diversified than the “Israeli contractor” label suggests. Israel’s own forces account for just over a quarter of revenue. The rest comes from NATO and allied customers across Europe, the United States, and elsewhere. That geographic spread is a core part of the investment case, because it means the demand story is not a bet on any single country’s budget.
Why the backlog matters
A record backlog is the strongest fact in the entire pitch. Backlog is contracted revenue, work that is already sold but not yet delivered, and it gives the business visibility that a company chasing one-off orders does not have. A $30 billion backlog against a market cap north of $35 billion means the company’s entire current equity value is roughly matched by work already under contract.
That is a solid foundation, but it is not the same thing as a cheap stock. Elbit now trades near $783 a share, up from roughly $200 in early 2024, and it carries a forward multiple near 44 times next-year earnings of about $18 against roughly 10% revenue growth. The earnings trajectory has improved sharply, from early-2024 analyst expectations of about $7 a share by 2026 to today’s consensus near $17, but the price has moved even faster. The valuation math is the subject of our Elbit Systems stock analysis.
The honest read
Elbit is a real company with a real backlog and a genuine role in the Western rearmament cycle. The combat-proven status of its systems, the diversified customer base, and the record order book all support the thesis that Jovine is pitching. What is harder to support is the idea that a new buyer today is getting the same deal the analyst got when he first recommended the stock near $200 in early 2024.
The promo’s “up 121% since our recommendation” claim is measured from Jovine’s own entry point. A reader acting on the pitch today starts from roughly $783 a share, at a high multiple, with the easy re-rating already in the past. The company is worth understanding, and the rearmament decade is real, but the price at which you buy determines how much of that decade shows up in your returns.
Beyond the missile-defense headline
Elbit is often reduced to its missile-defense work, but the company is a broad defense electronics and land-systems business. Its product lines span artillery and munitions, unmanned systems, electro-optics, avionics, and command-and-control electronics, alongside the cyber-defense and laser counter-weapon programs that get the most attention in the promo. That breadth is a strength, because it means the order book does not depend on any single program or any single customer.
The land-based defense segment is where the current earnings momentum sits. Western munitions stockpiles were drawn down faster than production could replenish them, and the rebuild is a budget-backed, multi-year effort. Elbit’s artillery and shells business sits directly in that flow, which is why the company’s earnings estimates have risen so sharply from the early-2024 consensus of about $7 a share by 2026 to near $17 today.
The diversified customer base reinforces the durability of the story. With Israel’s own forces accounting for just over a quarter of revenue and NATO and allied customers making up the rest, the company is less exposed to any single government’s procurement cycle than the “Israeli contractor” label implies. That geographic spread is the structural reason the record backlog reads as durable rather than as a one-time spike driven by a single conflict.
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