The Hook
The Motley Fool’s latest email teaser, the first novel promo from the Fool in a while after a string of Shopify and Arista Networks re-recommendations, sells a “Total Conviction Buy Alert” on a space company. Narrated by CEO Tom Gardner, the pitch frames this rare signal as a repeat of the Fool’s historic “double down” calls on Nvidia, Netflix, Amazon, Tesla, and Shopify.
The framing: “Imagine it’s December 17, 2009… That was the day we issued a re-recommendation for Nvidia, telling our members to ‘Double Down’ on the stock. If you had ignored it, you’d have missed out on a life-changing 46,022% return.”
The current pick: “a company that is just 1/100th the size of Nvidia. This stock has been recommended 9 separate times by different Motley Fool services since 2023… and the first recommendation is already up 10x in just 2 years.”
The Big Claim
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is positioned as “the one-stop shop of the space economy”, a vertically integrated company that designs, manufactures, launches, and monitors satellites. The thesis: the space economy is projected to nearly triple to $1.8 trillion by 2035 (World Economic Forum/McKinsey), and RKLB is uniquely positioned to capture that growth.
Tom Gardner’s framing: he “recently interviewed this company’s CEO and was so impressed that he immediately recommended members buy more shares. And this CEO is putting his money where his mouth is. He’s betting his personal fortune, over $2.6 billion, on his company.”
The service: Stock Advisor ($99/year new, $199 renewal, 30-day refund).
The Mechanism
Rocket Lab is a real company with a real business. Let’s separate the facts from the promo spin.
What Rocket Lab Actually Does
- Electron rocket: The workhorse. Small-satellite launches at a fast cadence, the second most frequently launched rocket in the US after SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
- Space systems: Satellite design, manufacturing, and components. This is actually the larger revenue segment. RKLB builds satellites, solar panels, separation systems, and flight software for NASA, the Space Development Agency, and commercial customers.
- Neutron: A larger rocket in development to compete with Falcon 9 for medium-lift missions. Delayed, a component failed during testing.
- Haste: A hypersonic test platform for the Department of Defense.
- Deep space: NASA selected RKLB to build spacecraft for a Mars mission.
The business is real. The question is the price.
The Numbers
- Revenue: ~$600M (2025), targeting $1B+ by 2027 (~40% annual growth)
- Market cap: ~$40B (was ~$2B two years ago, already 10x’d)
- Cash: ~$1B on hand
- Profitability: Currently losing ~$0.19/share (expected to halve in 2026)
- Adjusted profitability: Analysts see ~$0.13/share adjusted EPS by 2027
The Valuation
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Price/Sales (trailing) | ~70X | $40B market cap on ~$600M revenue |
| Forward P/E (2027 adj.) | ~500X | Based on ~$0.13/share adjusted |
| Forward P/E (2028 analyst) | ~130X | Based on expected EBITDA growth |
| SpaceX comp | ~100X revenue | But SpaceX has Starlink profitability |
SpaceX trades at ~100X revenue as a private company, so by that metric, RKLB at 70X is “cheaper.” But SpaceX has Starlink, which allegedly generates ~50% margins and $8B+ in profit on $16B in revenue. Rocket Lab doesn’t have a Starlink equivalent, its space systems business is good, but it’s build-to-order, not recurring subscription revenue.
The Real Pick
| Ticker | Company | Current Price | Tease Price | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | Rocket Lab | ~$64-71 | $71.96 | -2 to -11% |
RKLB is extremely volatile. It surged 150% in a single month at the turn of 2026, crashed 50% in the weeks before that, and has pulled back ~30% in the past two months. At a current price around $64-71, the stock is roughly where it was when the promo went live in March 2026.
Does the Math Check Out?
“46,022% return” from Nvidia
This is technically true, if you bought Nvidia on December 17, 2009, and held until mid-2026, you’d have that return. But the Fool recommended Nvidia dozens of times over those 17 years, recommended selling it at various points, and no subscriber held through the entire period. The “double down” framing implies a single prescient call when the reality was many calls, some right, some wrong.
“1/100th the size of Nvidia”
Nvidia’s market cap is ~$3.5-4 trillion. RKLB at ~$40 billion is roughly 1/100th. But Nvidia has $130B+ in revenue, 70%+ gross margins, and $80B+ in net income. RKLB has $600M in revenue, no profits, and no clear path to Nvidia-level margins. The “1/100th the size” framing implies comparability, these are fundamentally different businesses.
“CEO betting his personal fortune, over $2.6 billion, on his company”
This is the most misleading claim in the promo. Peter Beck’s “fortune” is his founder’s equity. He founded Rocket Lab, owns a large stake, and hasn’t sold most of it. That’s not “betting his fortune” by buying shares, it’s being the founder and not cashing out. This is the same framing the Fool used for The Trade Desk (Jeff Green “betting $575M”), after which Green proceeded to sell.
The distinction matters: an active open-market purchase (like the Amrize CEO putting $50M of his own cash into the stock in Porter & Co.’s promo) is a genuine signal. A founder holding equity they received at inception is not.
“Most investors are still ignoring this”
The stock is up 10X in two years. A $40 billion market cap for $600 million in revenue. “Ignored” is not the word. “Discovered, rerated, and now priced for a decade of flawless execution” is more accurate.
The SpaceX comparison
The bull case: SpaceX at 100X revenue proves the market will pay up for space. The bear case: SpaceX has Starlink, a recurring revenue, high-margin internet business, and Rocket Lab doesn’t. RKLB’s “one-stop shop” is build-to-order: someone needs a satellite, RKLB builds it, launches it, and monitors it. That’s a services business, not a subscription business. The recurring revenue from “monitoring” hasn’t been separated in financials, suggesting it’s small relative to the launch and build segments.
Neutron delays
The first Neutron rocket component failed during testing. The timeline has slipped. Neutron is the key to RKLB competing with SpaceX in the medium-lift market, without it, RKLB is limited to small satellites and government contracts. The thesis depends on Neutron working on time and on budget. Rocket development has a perfect record of being neither.
What They Got Right
- Space is a real, growing market. The $1.8 trillion by 2035 projection (WEF/McKinsey) may be aggressive, but the trend is real. Launch cadence is accelerating, satellite constellations are multiplying, and government defense spending on space is growing.
- RKLB is the second-best launch company. In a market where launch capability is scarce and demand is growing, being #2 is valuable. Electron’s reliability record is strong.
- Vertical integration is a genuine moat. Designing, building, and launching your own satellites means you control the entire stack. Customers who want “we need a satellite in orbit doing X” don’t care who builds vs. launches, they want a solution. RKLB can deliver that end-to-end.
- The space systems business is underappreciated. Building satellites and components for NASA, the SDA, and commercial customers generates predictable revenue that diversifies away from launch cadence risk.
- $1B in cash. RKLB can fund Neutron development and ride out delays without dilution.
What They Got Wrong
- “Total Conviction” is marketing, not methodology. The Fool has used this framing for multiple stocks. It’s not a quantitative signal. It’s a narrative device to create urgency, and urgency sells subscriptions.
- “CEO betting his fortune” is misleading. Holding founder’s equity is not “betting” anything. It’s what every founder does.
- 500X forward earnings is not a “buy alert.” Even if RKLB hits every target, $1B revenue by 2027, adjusted profitability, Neutron flying, the stock is already pricing in those outcomes. At 130X 2028 EBITDA, you’re paying for 2028 being a perfect year… in 2026.
- “Most investors are ignoring this” at 70X revenue. The market is paying a premium for optionality, the possibility that Rocket Lab becomes SpaceX-lite. That’s not ignoring; that’s speculating.
- The Nvidia comparison is a category error. Nvidia in 2009 was a niche graphics company with a tiny market cap and a long runway into GPU computing. RKLB in 2026 is a $40B space company with a proven product and a long runway into… more space. The setups are not comparable.
The Verdict
Rocket Lab is a legitimate company with a real business in a growing industry. If it executes on Neutron, grows space systems, and captures a meaningful share of the medium-lift launch market, it could be a long-term compounder.
But at 500X forward earnings and 70X revenue, you’re not buying a company, you’re buying a narrative. The stock has already 10X’d. The easy money has been made. From here, returns depend on flawless execution across multiple unproven product lines (Neutron, Haste, deep space) in an industry where delays are the norm and competitors (SpaceX, Blue Origin, United Launch Alliance) have deeper pockets.
The “Total Conviction” framing is classic Motley Fool marketing: take a historically impressive track record (Nvidia in 2009), draw a strained comparison to a current pick, and frame it as the same signal. It’s effective copywriting. It’s not investment analysis.
If you want space exposure, RKLB is one of the few pure-play public options. But understand what you’re buying: a $40 billion company with $600 million in revenue, no profits, a delayed rocket program, and a stock that moves 50% in either direction on any given month. That’s not a “pick for retirement”, it’s a speculative growth bet that requires a strong stomach and a long time horizon.
This is not financial advice. NewsletterVetter has no position in any stock mentioned. Stock Advisor’s own past performance disclosures note that “not every recommendation has been profitable” and that the advertised returns represent the average return of all Stock Advisor picks, not the returns of any individual subscriber.