Humanoid robots have gone from science fiction to a serious investment theme in a surprisingly short time. The moment Tesla showed a walking, grasping Optimus prototype, the market started asking a specific question: which companies actually supply the parts, and which of them are publicly tradeable?
Brownstone Research’s “Elon Musk’s NEW AI Masterplan” pitch tries to answer that question with three “secret” stocks that could “unleash enough wealth to make every household in America $2.38 million.” The applications leg is a power chip company, onsemi, and the angle is that the chips are what make a humanoid robot’s body actually work. Here is that argument, examined honestly.
Why Humanoid Robots Are Back in Focus
Three curves crossed at the same time. The cost of compute, sensors, and batteries all fell far enough to make a mobile, battery-powered robot feasible, while the AI models that could give a robot its brain got dramatically better. That combination is what people mean by physical AI, machines that can perceive and act in the real world rather than just generate text.
We unpack the physical AI thesis in detail in a separate piece, and our coverage of Tesla’s Optimus walks through the hardware. The short version is that a humanoid robot is one of the most demanding machines anyone has tried to mass-produce, and every one of its systems needs silicon.
The Power Chip Angle
A humanoid robot has dozens of electric motors, each of which needs power chips that can switch current on and off very fast, very precisely, and with as little wasted heat as possible. The pitch states the mechanism directly: the chips are what let a robot “move efficiently, stay cool, and run longer without needing to stop and recharge as often.” That is not marketing spin. It is an accurate description of what power electronics do.
On top of the motors, a robot needs sensors to see its surroundings and circuits to manage its battery. That is a lot of semiconductor content per robot, and it is the core of the power chip angle on humanoid robot stocks.
Where onsemi Sits
onsemi is the second-largest power chipmaker in the world and one of the biggest suppliers of image sensors to the automotive market, which puts it in two of the most relevant places at once. The ad leans on a concrete fact: onsemi is “already supplying Tesla with a key piece of sensor technology.” The relationship is real today, which makes the leap to supplying Optimus more plausible than it would be for a company with no Tesla history.
Analysts have noted the fit, with Morgan Stanley flagging onsemi as a way to play the robotics trend. The logic is straightforward: a supplier that already handles Tesla’s automotive power and sensing needs is a natural candidate for its robot program too.
The Timeline Question
The honest complication is timing. Today onsemi’s revenue is overwhelmingly automotive and industrial, not robots. The Optimus program, however promising, is still years away from shipping in meaningful volume. The editor’s “Manifested AGI Revolution” framing, which we explain here, has been part of the pitch for more than a year already, and the company’s own numbers have not yet shown a robot-driven inflection.
That does not make the thesis wrong. It makes it early, and it is worth being clear-eyed about the difference.
The Fine Print Worth Reading
Two numbers in the ad deserve scrutiny. The claim that a chip-equipment maker could be “on the receiving end of up to $500 billion in 2027 alone” is aimed at ASML, not onsemi, and it does not survive contact with reality, since ASML’s annual revenue is only about $30 billion. The “39 hedge funds are investing” line is filler, not a signal.
For onsemi itself, the honest read is a quality franchise trading at about 18 times forward earnings with a roughly $28 billion market cap, and a tease price of $71.67 that simply matches the current price. Buy the company if you believe in its power and sensing franchise on its own merits, not because a robot headline promises a $2.38 million windfall.
There is no single right way to play the theme, which is part of what makes humanoid robot stocks confusing. The bill of materials spans compute chips for the brain, power chips for the muscles, sensors for the eyes, and actuators and gears for the joints, and no one company supplies all of it. The Masterplan pitch simplifies this by picking one layer, the power and sensing layer, and one supplier. That is a defensible choice, but it is worth knowing it is a choice among many, and the layers do not all move at the same time or with the same economics.
The practical question, then, is less which company and more which layer. The power and sensing layer is one of the few that is already generating real revenue from the automation boom, which is why it is a sensible first stop for most investors approaching the theme.
Ready to see the research? Click here to view the Elon Musk’s AI Masterplan presentation.
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