Every so often a newsletter promotion lands on a stock so recognizable that the “secret” framing feels a little thin, and that is exactly what happens with the latest “Elon Musk’s NEW AI Masterplan” pitch from Brownstone Research. The applications pick, the one tied to Tesla’s Optimus robot, is onsemi (ON), one of the largest and most-covered semiconductor names in the world.
That does not make it a bad stock. It makes the pitch worth reading carefully. The promise is that three “secret” stocks could “unleash enough wealth to make every household in America $2.38 million,” and onsemi is the physical AI leg. Here is the moat, the valuation, and an honest read on whether it earns the headline.
The Stock Behind the Pitch
onsemi, formerly ON Semiconductor, is the second-largest power chipmaker in the world and one of the biggest suppliers of image sensors to the automotive market. It trades at about $71.67 with a roughly $28 billion market cap, which is the first thing worth noticing about this particular pitch: the tease price and the current price are the same number.
That detail matters because it tells you how fresh the ad is. This is not a case where a newsletter named a small stock months ago and it has since run away. This is a re-pitch of a large, well-known company at roughly the current price, wrapped in an Elon Musk headline.
The Moat: Power Chips and Sensors
The business is really two franchises under one roof. The first is power management, where onsemi is a top-two player, supplying the silicon that drives electric-vehicle drivetrains, automotive safety systems, and industrial energy infrastructure. The second is image sensing, where it leads the automotive market with the cameras that let modern cars see.
That combination creates a genuine moat. Automotive qualification cycles are long, and once a sensor is designed into a vehicle platform, it tends to stay there for years. The ad grounds the whole thesis in one verifiable fact: onsemi is “already supplying Tesla with a key piece of sensor technology.” That relationship is real and active today.
Why the Pitch Picked It
The Masterplan’s forward-looking argument is that physical AI, machines that perceive and act in the real world, will need a lot of specialized silicon, and onsemi is positioned to supply it. A humanoid robot needs power chips to move its joints efficiently, stay cool, and run longer between charges, and it needs sensors to see. onsemi builds both.
The pitch packages this as the “Manifested AGI Revolution” report and leans on the Tesla connection to argue the same silicon will flow into Tesla’s Optimus robot. Morgan Stanley has flagged onsemi as a way to play the robotics trend, and the logic is sound: a supplier that already handles Tesla’s automotive power and sensing is a natural candidate for its robot program too.
The Honest Valuation
At about 18 times forward earnings with growth expected in the 30 to 40 percent range this year, onsemi is reasonably priced if the growth lands. It is not obviously cheap, and it is not a speculative multiple either. The honest complication is that this is the same setup the stock has seen before.
In 2021 and 2022, onsemi was the hot electric-vehicle story, and the stock ran ahead of itself before giving most of those gains back. Its earnings per share today are about half of what they were at that peak, and the share price is about where it was five years ago. That history is a reminder that semiconductor demand is cyclical, and a compelling narrative can run ahead of the fundamentals.
Our Read
The honest read is that onsemi is a quality franchise at a fair price, with a real but distant robot catalyst layered on top. The physical AI theme is genuine, and the mechanism behind it, that robots need enormous amounts of power and sensing silicon, is sound. But an investor buying today is buying an automotive and industrial power semiconductor business, not a robot company, and the robot revenue is still years away.
Two numbers in the ad deserve a final mention because they frame the whole thing. The claim that a chip-equipment maker could be “on the receiving end of up to $500 billion in 2027 alone” is aimed at ASML, not onsemi, and it does not survive contact with reality, since ASML’s annual revenue is only about $30 billion. And the “39 hedge funds are investing” line is filler, not a signal. Our teardown of the sibling Elon Musk’s 10X Project promo shows the same pattern from the same publisher.
Buy onsemi if you believe in the company on its own merits, a leading power and sensing franchise at a reasonable multiple. Just do not buy it because of a $2.38 million per household headline.
None of this is a reason to write the company off. It is a reason to size the position realistically and to separate the durable business from the headline. The power and sensing franchise is real, the valuation is fair, and the robot option is genuinely there, just farther out than the ad implies.
Ready to see the research? Click here to view the Elon Musk’s AI Masterplan presentation.
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