The “Elon Musk’s NEW AI Masterplan” presentation from Brownstone Research is built around three “secret” stocks that could “unleash enough wealth to make every household in America $2.38 million.” The third of those stocks, the applications leg, is onsemi (ON), the company the editor calls the physical AI pick.

The pitch’s claim is specific: onsemi is the “backdoor” into the robotics wave, the supplier whose power chips and sensors will sit inside Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot. Here is the thesis, what the company actually does, and how the valuation holds up.

The Three-Step Masterplan

The Masterplan is really three pitches stacked on top of each other, one for each step of an Elon Musk-led AI buildout. Step one is the chips, pointed at ASML, the Dutch maker of extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines. Step two is the energy, pointed at STMicroelectronics. Step three is the applications, pointed at onsemi, and it is the step the ad spends the most energy on.

The logic of the third step is that physical AI, machines that perceive and act in the real world, will need specialized silicon, and onsemi is positioned to supply it. That framing is the heart of the “Manifested AGI Revolution” special report the promotion sells.

What the Company Actually Does

onsemi is the second-largest power chipmaker in the world and one of the biggest suppliers of image sensors to the automotive market. Its power chips manage current in electric-vehicle drivetrains and industrial energy systems, while its image sensors let cars see the road. The ad grounds the whole pitch in one concrete fact: onsemi is “already supplying Tesla with a key piece of sensor technology.”

That relationship is real and active today, which is what separates this thesis from pure speculation. The company already does business with the customer the pitch is built around.

The Optimus Supplier Thesis

The forward-looking argument is that the same silicon will flow into Tesla’s humanoid robot. A robot needs power chips to move its joints efficiently, stay cool, and run longer between charges, and it needs sensors to see its surroundings. onsemi builds both, which is why the ad frames it as the “backdoor” into robotics.

Morgan Stanley has flagged onsemi as a way to play the robotics trend, and the logic is hard to argue with. A supplier that already handles Tesla’s automotive power and sensing needs is a natural candidate for its robot program too. Our coverage of Tesla’s Optimus walks through the hardware side of that story.

The Honest Valuation

The numbers are worth laying out plainly. onsemi trades at about 18 times forward earnings with a roughly $28 billion market cap, and the tease price of $71.67 simply matches the current close. That is the first honest signal: this is a re-pitch at today’s price, not a fresh discovery the newsletter made weeks ago.

Eighteen times forward earnings is a reasonable, not obviously cheap, price for a company expected to grow earnings 30 to 40 percent this year, if that growth lands. The risk is that this is the same setup onsemi had before. In 2021 and 2022 it was the hot electric-vehicle story, and the stock ran ahead of itself before giving most of it back. Today its earnings per share are about half their peak, and the share price is about where it was five years ago.

The Fine Print Worth Reading

Two numbers in the ad deserve scrutiny. The claim that a chip-equipment maker could be “on the receiving end of up to $500 billion in 2027 alone” is aimed at ASML, not onsemi, and it does not survive contact with reality, since ASML’s annual revenue is only about $30 billion. The “39 hedge funds are investing” line is filler, not a signal.

The honest conclusion is that onsemi is a quality franchise at a fair price, with a real but distant robot catalyst layered on top. The physical AI theme is genuine, but an investor buying today is buying an automotive and industrial power semiconductor business, not a robot company. That distinction is the fine print worth reading.

It is worth pausing on the “backdoor” framing, because it is the part of the pitch that most oversells. A backdoor implies a hidden, indirect route into a theme that the market has not priced in. But onsemi is one of the most widely followed semiconductor companies in the world, and its robot optionality is already a topic of analyst coverage. That does not make the opportunity false, it just makes it public. The honest framing is that onsemi is a well-known, fairly priced way to own the electrification and robotics theme, not a secret the market has somehow missed.

The distinction between “supplier to Tesla’s cars today” and “supplier to Tesla’s robots tomorrow” is the whole ballgame, and it is the difference the fine print is there to flag. The first is a fact, the second is a thesis, and the two deserve to be valued differently.

Ready to see the research? Click here to view the Elon Musk’s AI Masterplan presentation.

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