The Hook
Alexander Green’s Oxford Microcap Trader is back with a pitch for “my number one microcap for today’s market,” a stock he says sits at the intersection of artificial intelligence and healthcare, still trading under $10 a share, and one he claims to have backed with $100,000 of his own money. The subscription runs $1,995 a year with a 60-day partial refund, minus a 10% “refund fee.”
The ad leans hard on the exclusivity angle. “When I say unknown, I mean virtually invisible to most investors,” Green says. “You aren’t likely to hear it touted on CNBC or Fox Business News. You won’t find it listed on the S&P 500.” Then comes the big framing, that this is “one of those transformative disruptors like Amazon, Apple, and Netflix that come along only once or twice in a generation.”
The reveal, worked out by Stock Gumshoe’s Thinkolator, is Absci (ABSI), an AI-powered drug-discovery company. And this is where the story gets a little familiar: Green has been pitching Absci since late 2022, when he first called it his “All In” microcap for 2023, and has re-run the tease several times since. That does not make the company any less real. It does mean the “undiscovered microcap” framing has a shelf life problem.
The Big Claim
The specific promise is a royalty business built on generative AI. “I believe this company will be the world’s next big royalty business,” Green says, describing a model where big pharmaceutical partners use Absci’s AI to design new drugs, then handle the testing, approval, and marketing themselves while Absci “simply collect[s] royalties all along the way.”
The numbers he attaches to it are concrete. He cites a Merck partnership that “should bring in $610 million in upfront revenue discoveries,” an AstraZeneca deal worth “$247 million” to build new cancer drugs, and analyst forecasts of revenue growth of “185% this year” and “an additional 300%” in 2027, all on a company he pegs at “a market cap of around 750 million dollars.”
Those are checkable claims, and several of them check out against the public record while a couple of them do not. The interesting question is which ones matter for an investor buying today.
The Mechanism
The underlying idea is genuinely elegant, and it is worth understanding before we get to the numbers. Traditional drug discovery is the “keep testing until something works” grind: scientists spend years screening thousands of compounds hoping one sticks. Absci’s AI-powered drug discovery approach converts proteins into a digital form that its generative AI can analyze, letting it search a vastly larger space of possible antibody designs and zero in on the most promising candidates before anything goes into a lab.
That is a real technological bet, and it has attracted real partners. Absci signed a drug-discovery deal with Merck in 2022 worth up to about $610 million in milestones. In 2023 AstraZeneca signed on for a deal worth up to about $247 million to use the platform for cancer drugs. More recently the company struck a hardware collaboration with AMD, which came with a $20 million investment in January 2025, plus a $40 million strategic investment from Eli Lilly that could tie to its lead drug program.
The lead asset, ABS-201, is an anti-prolactin receptor antibody engineered with an extended half-life, aimed at pattern hair loss and also being tested in endometriosis. The June safety readout looked encouraging enough to spike the stock toward $12 from a trough near $2 earlier in the year. Preliminary proof-of-concept data is expected in the second half of 2026, full proof in early 2027, a Phase 2 in endometriosis before year end, and a hoped-for Phase 3 in hair loss as soon as late 2027.
So the mechanism is sound as far as it goes: a real AI platform, real pharmaceutical partners, and a real clinical-stage lead asset with a defined timeline. What the ad glosses over is how early all of this still is, and how much of the value is already in the stock price.
The Real Pick
| Ticker | Company | Current Price | Tease Price | Change Since Tease | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABSI | Absci Corporation | $10.71 | $9.82 | +9.06% | ~$1.69B |
Prices as of the September 22, 2026 close via Polygon. The tease price is the ad’s reference point, and the “1,000%-style” upside is a forward-looking hope, not a realized return.
Does the Math Check Out?
The headline numbers deserve a closer look, starting with the market cap. Green says “around 750 million dollars,” but Absci is worth about $1.69 billion today. The “sub-$10 microcap” story was true in 2022 and 2023, when the stock traded between roughly $1.60 and $5. It is less true now. A buyer at $10.71 is not discovering the company before anyone else; they are paying roughly twice the valuation the ad implies.
The revenue forecasts are a different kind of stretch. “185% growth this year and 300% more in 2027” sounds explosive until you realize the base is tiny. Absci’s revenue today is minimal and lumpy, driven mostly by milestone payments from the Merck and AstraZeneca partnerships, and those partnerships are still in early research and development after several years, with no clinical-stage compound yet produced from either. A company going from $5 million to $14 million is growing 185%, but that is not the kind of growth that justifies a royalty-business narrative.
The royalty business itself is the weakest link in the timing. “The next big royalty business” implies drugs on the market generating ongoing payments. Absci is several clinical years away from that, and the first big test is not a royalty check, it is whether ABS-201’s proof-of-concept data lands in the second half of 2026. There is also real competition: Veradermics (MANE) is in late Phase 3 with an oral hair-loss treatment and could reach market years before ABS-201, and its single asset supports a roughly $5 billion market cap, which is a useful yardstick for what a late-stage hair-loss win might be worth.
On the other side of the ledger, the Veradermics comparison is also the bull case in miniature. If a single late-stage hair-loss drug can support $5 billion, then Absci at $1.69 billion is arguably being valued mostly for its AI platform and partnerships, with ABS-201 as a meaningful option on top. That is a reasonable setup, just not the “absolute no brainer” the ad describes.
What They Got Right
- The AI-drug-discovery thesis is real and differentiated. Absci’s protein-to-digital approach is a genuine attempt to change how drugs are found, not a marketing slogan.
- The partnership list is verifiable and substantive. Merck, AstraZeneca, and Eli Lilly are not names a company fabricates, and the AMD investment is public record.
- The royalty model is how this corner of biotech actually works, and it is fair to describe Absci’s potential that way, even if the timing is distant.
- The hair-loss angle is genuinely interesting. A well-tolerated, longer-acting antibody for a condition affecting a huge number of people would be a meaningful market, and the June safety data was encouraging.
What They Got Wrong
- The market cap is stale. “Around $750 million” is roughly half the actual $1.69 billion, and it quietly recycles the 2022 discovery story into a 2026 pitch.
- The “$100,000 invested” claim is presented as fresh conviction but has been repeated since 2022 and 2023. There is no evidence it is a new 2026 investment at current prices.
- The “NVIDIA partner” credential is dated. The more recent and more material hardware relationship is the AMD collaboration, and leaning on the older marquee name oversells the current state.
- The revenue forecast of “185% then 300%” is technically possible only because the base is tiny, and it implies momentum that the milestone-driven, still-early-stage partnerships have not yet demonstrated.
The Verdict
Absci is a legitimate company with a real AI drug-discovery platform, genuine pharmaceutical partners, and a clinical asset with defined catalysts over the next eighteen months. If you are interested in the AI-biology thesis and comfortable with early-stage biotech risk, it is worth a hard look ahead of the ABS-201 proof-of-concept readout in the second half of 2026.
But do not buy it because of this ad. The “sub-$10 undiscovered microcap” framing is stale, the “$750 million market cap” is off by more than half, the “NVIDIA partner” line glosses over the fact that the more recent hardware relationship is with AMD, and the “$100,000 invested” is a recycled claim from 2022. Buy Absci for the science and the catalysts, not for the bargain framing that no longer matches the price tag.
This is not financial advice. NewsletterVetter has no position in any stock mentioned. The promotional ad’s own fine print, standard across The Oxford Club’s offers, notes that forward-looking statements and past performance are not guarantees of future results, which sits awkwardly next to language like “absolute no brainer” and “the world’s next big royalty business.”