Jim Rickards’ “Trump’s Secret $2 Gold Mine” presentation names a single company: Northern Dynasty Minerals, the Toronto and New York listed owner of the Pebble Project in southwest Alaska. The stock trades on the NYSE American under NAK and on the Toronto exchange under NDM.TO. Before buying, it is worth separating the pitch from the balance sheet, because this is one of the most speculative names in the entire gold sector.
What the Pitch Claims
The presentation describes Pebble as holding the “largest mineral reserve of its kind on the planet,” worth “up to $2.7 trillion,” with “161+ million ounces of gold” and a value of “almost $1 trillion” at today’s prices. It says the stock “could jump by at least another $2,” could “double your money within minutes,” and offers “10-fold profits or more.” Those are the framing numbers, and they are built on the raw size of the deposit, not on what the company can actually mine and sell today.
Northern Dynasty has no producing mine and no near-term revenue. The 161 million ounces are in the ground, and the $16 billion per $100 gold move that the pitch cites is gross in-situ value, before the cost of building, operating, and permitting the mine is subtracted. For the underlying mechanics of how gold mining stocks amplify the metal’s price, see our explainer on gold mining stocks.
The Permitting Reality
The single fact that defines NAK as an investment is permitting. The Pebble Project has been stuck for more than two decades, and it sits near Bristol Bay, home to the most valuable wild salmon fishery on earth. The EPA issued a Clean Water Act veto in January 2023, and the Army Corps of Engineers rejected a key permit in 2024. Northern Dynasty and the state of Alaska sued to overturn the veto, and the Department of Justice is still defending it.
The November 3 countdown in the pitch is not a mine approval. It is the expected date of a summary-judgment ruling in the lawsuit over the EPA veto. A favorable ruling would be meaningful, but it would not break ground; it would clear one hurdle in a process that has already run twenty years and still faces local, state, and federal opposition, including from both of Alaska’s sitting senators.
The Insider Angle
The pitch leans on three “smoking guns,” one of which is that insiders own roughly 10 percent of the shares and have “bet $68 million” on the company. The reality is more nuanced. Much of that insider ownership comes through stock, options, and warrant compensation, not open-market purchases. And at least one institutional holder, Kopernik Global, has been selling recently. Donald Trump Jr., for his part, publicly advocated blocking the project in 2020, which complicates the narrative that the current administration is a clean tailwind.
The Price Today
The shares were teased at $1.95 in April and $1.72 in July, and now trade near $1.61, with a market cap around $900 million. The stock is down since the tease, which is the market’s way of saying it has not yet accepted the $2.7 trillion story. For how this name compares to established producers and other picks, see our guide to gold stock picks and our look at Kinross Gold, a producing major with a very different risk profile.
Northern Dynasty is a binary bet on a legal ruling and a permitting turnaround, layered on top of a genuine gold tailwind. It is not a diversified gold mining stock; it is a concentrated, speculative position, and it should be sized accordingly, if it is owned at all.
The Cantor Fitzgerald Connection
The pitch’s most interesting “smoking gun” is the Howard Lutnick connection. Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, is said to have met with the company’s leadership, and the pitch frames that meeting around a “bring copper home” push for domestic supply. Lutnick’s former firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, underwrote the mine’s financing during the first Trump administration, which is presented as evidence that Washington now favors the project.
It is a real connection worth taking seriously, but it is also worth reading carefully. A meeting and a past financing arrangement are not the same as a permit, and the permit is the thing that actually matters. The EPA’s Clean Water Act veto from January 2023 and the Army Corps’ 2024 rejection are still on the books, and the Department of Justice is still defending the veto in court. Both of Alaska’s senators oppose the project, and Donald Trump Jr. publicly called for it to be blocked in 2020.
None of that means a favorable outcome is impossible. It means the political tailwind is one input among several, and the legal reality is the heavier one. The November 3 countdown points to a summary-judgment ruling in the lawsuit over the veto, and that ruling, not a political meeting, is what will move the stock.
NewsletterVetter is an independent publication. We receive compensation from some of the services we review through affiliate links. Nothing on this site is investment advice. Always do your own research.