The Scale of the Deposit

The Pebble mine is a porphyry deposit in southwest Alaska containing gold, copper, and molybdenum. It is one of the largest undeveloped mineral deposits on earth, a description both the Associated Press and The New York Times use, and the numbers behind the claim are large. Jim Rickards’s “Trump’s Secret $2 Gold Mine” presentation pegs the gold resource at more than 161 million ounces, alongside a substantial copper resource, and puts the total in-ground value as high as $2.7 trillion.

The scale is the honest part of the pitch. This is not a small claim that got inflated. Porphyry deposits of this size are rare, and the fact that Pebble has sat undeveloped for two decades is not because the metal is not there. It is because of where the metal is.

Why It Has Never Been Built

Pebble sits near Bristol Bay, which supports the most valuable wild salmon fishery in the world. That proximity is the entire story of the project’s two decades of delay. A mine of this size requires a large open pit, a tailings facility, and water management infrastructure, and the risk those operations pose to the salmon watershed has drawn opposition from commercial fishermen, tribes, and conservation groups for as long as the project has existed.

The opposition is not just grassroots. Both of Alaska’s U.S. senators oppose the mine, which is remarkable for a state that is otherwise strongly pro-mining. The project has also faced opposition from within the Trump orbit at different points. Donald Trump Jr. publicly advocated blocking Pebble in 2020, which complicates the promo’s framing of the mine as a Trump administration priority with a straight line to approval.

The permitting fight has produced a concrete legal wall. In January 2023 the EPA issued a Clean Water Act veto that effectively blocked the project. In 2024 the Army Corps of Engineers rejected a key permit. Northern Dynasty, the company that owns Pebble, and the state of Alaska sued to reverse the EPA veto, and the Department of Justice is still defending it, which is the situation as of the latest filings.

That lawsuit is the real catalyst behind the promo’s November 3 countdown. It is the expected summary-judgment ruling in the challenge to the EPA veto, not an approval. Even a win for the company would leave the Army Corps rejection and the broader permitting process in place. For the full timeline, see our article on the Pebble Project’s history, and for the Alaska side of the fight, our piece on Pebble in Alaska.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

The promo’s math deserves the same scrutiny as its legal claims. The idea that 161 million ounces times a $100 gold move adds about $16 billion of value is correct as gross in-ground arithmetic, but in-ground value is not profit. It ignores the billions required to build the mine, the operating costs of running it, the tailings and water design, and the fact that none of it gets mined without permits that do not currently exist.

That is why the company behind Pebble, Northern Dynasty, trades as NAK with a market value of roughly $900 million rather than anywhere near the trillions the promo headlines. The deposit is real. The value is discounted to reflect the risk, and the market’s discount has been correct for twenty years.

The Economic Tradeoff

The fight over Pebble is not just environmental; it is a genuine economic argument between two Alaskan industries. The mine would bring construction jobs, royalties, and tax revenue, and in a state that depends heavily on resource extraction, that is not a small thing. The salmon fishery on the other side supports thousands of commercial fishing jobs, a sport-fishing economy, and the subsistence way of life for the region’s Alaska Native communities.

The two industries pull in opposite directions because they need the same watershed. A mine the size of Pebble would require a large open pit, a tailings facility, and a water management system, and the risk those pose to the salmon run is the central objection. That is why the EPA reached for its Clean Water Act veto authority in the first place, a tool it uses rarely, and why the Army Corps of Engineers rejected the permit in 2024.

The Political Threads

The political story is more tangled than the promo lets on. The “bring copper home” agenda and the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick connection are real, and they suggest some parts of Washington want the project to move. But Donald Trump Jr. publicly advocated blocking Pebble in 2020, and both of Alaska’s sitting U.S. senators oppose it. A project with that kind of mixed support inside its own political coalition is not a straight line to approval. It is a multi-year legal and political campaign, and the outcome is genuinely uncertain in both directions.

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