Kalshi Stock: How to Invest in Prediction Markets

Kalshi is a private company. You cannot buy Kalshi stock through a brokerage. But you can invest in the publicly traded companies that power prediction market infrastructure, which is the approach Luke Lango recommends. As we detail in our full review of the Prediction Markets presentation, Lango reveals two free tickers that give investors exposure to the prediction market boom.

Why You Cannot Buy Kalshi Stock

Kalshi is a privately held company. It has raised venture capital funding but has not conducted an IPO. Unless you are an accredited investor with access to private markets, you cannot invest directly in Kalshi. This is common for early-stage fintech companies that are still scaling.

However, the fact that Kalshi is private does not mean you cannot profit from the prediction market category it helped create. Lango’s thesis is that the investment opportunity is not in the prediction market platforms themselves but in the publicly traded companies that build the infrastructure behind them. This is the picks-and-shovels approach. For more on this strategy, see our article on prediction market stocks.

Robinhood (HOOD): The Main Pick

Robinhood has partnered with Susquehanna to offer prediction markets to its 27 million users. The key competitive detail is pricing: Robinhood charges a flat $0.01 per contract, compared to Kalshi’s variable fees. For a platform with 27 million users already comfortable trading stocks and crypto, adding prediction markets is a natural extension that could drive significant engagement and revenue.

Robinhood is a publicly traded company (NASDAQ: HOOD) that anyone can buy through a standard brokerage account. The investment thesis is that prediction markets represent a new revenue stream for an existing platform with massive user reach. If prediction markets grow from $64 billion to $1 trillion by 2030, and Robinhood captures even a modest share through its 27-million-user base, the revenue impact could be material. For more, see our article on Robinhood prediction markets.

Coinbase (COIN): The Side Bet

Coinbase owns the rails that every Polymarket trade rides on. Polymarket runs on the Polygon network and uses USDC for settlement. Coinbase is the primary U.S. exchange for USDC and has deep integration with the broader crypto infrastructure that prediction markets depend on. Additionally, Coinbase is rolling out prediction markets to its own user base.

Coinbase is a publicly traded company (NASDAQ: COIN) available through any brokerage. The investment thesis is that prediction market growth drives USDC transaction volume, which benefits Coinbase as the primary U.S. exchange for the stablecoin. For more, see our article on Polymarket stocks.

The Market Opportunity

Lango cites estimates suggesting the prediction market could grow from $64 billion today to $1 trillion by 2030. Trading volume is up 400 percent in recent quarters, according to Pew Research data. In 2024, Kalshi won a landmark court battle against the CFTC, establishing legal clarity for prediction markets in the United States. Goldman Sachs has a team analyzing prediction markets and is reportedly building a prediction market trading desk.

Even if you cannot buy Kalshi stock directly, you can invest in the publicly traded companies that serve the same market. Robinhood provides the mainstream trading platform. Coinbase provides the crypto infrastructure. Both benefit from the growth of the prediction market category. For more on the market dynamics, see our article on prediction market investing.

Kalshi’s Role in the Ecosystem

Kalshi is important because it won the court battle that established legal clarity for prediction markets in the United States. Without Kalshi’s victory, the entire category would still be operating in regulatory uncertainty. Robinhood might not have entered the space. Goldman Sachs might not be building a trading desk.

So while you cannot invest in Kalshi directly, Kalshi’s success created the conditions that make the infrastructure stocks, HOOD and COIN, attractive. Kalshi proved that prediction markets are legal. Robinhood and Coinbase are proving that they can be profitable. For more on Kalshi, see our article on what is the Kalshi app. For more on Kalshi’s election markets, see our article on the Kalshi election.

The Investment Approach

Both HOOD and COIN are real, widely-held stocks. Lango reveals them for free before the paywall, which gives you a real sense of the investment thesis before spending any money. The risks include exposure to broader market conditions, crypto regulation, and fintech competition. The $1 trillion market projection is an estimate. But for investors interested in the prediction market thesis, these are the most direct ways to gain exposure through publicly traded companies. For more on the broader investment landscape, see our article on online stock market trading.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.