Robinhood Brokerage Fees: $0.01 Per Prediction Contract

Robinhood built its brand on zero-commission stock trading. Now it is applying the same low-cost approach to prediction markets, charging a flat $0.01 per contract compared to Kalshi’s variable fees. As we detail in our full review of the Prediction Markets presentation, Luke Lango identifies this pricing advantage as a key reason Robinhood (HOOD) is his main prediction market stock pick.

The Fee Structure

Robinhood charges a flat $0.01 per prediction market contract. This is simple, transparent, and significantly cheaper than variable-fee structures for users who trade frequently. The flat fee means users know exactly what they will pay per trade, regardless of contract size or market conditions.

Kalshi, the leading dedicated prediction market platform, charges variable fees. Variable fees can be higher for popular contracts or during high-volume periods. For active traders, the difference between a flat $0.01 and variable fees can be substantial over hundreds or thousands of trades.

The pricing strategy is consistent with Robinhood’s history. The company disrupted the brokerage industry by eliminating stock trading commissions. Applying the same approach to prediction markets positions Robinhood as the low-cost provider in a new category. For more on Robinhood’s prediction market play, see our article on Robinhood prediction markets.

The 27 Million User Advantage

The fee structure matters most because of Robinhood’s user base. Twenty-seven million users already have funded accounts and are comfortable trading on the platform. Adding prediction markets to this existing base means Robinhood does not need to acquire new users to generate prediction market volume. It simply needs to activate existing users.

If prediction markets grow from $64 billion to $1 trillion by 2030, as Lango projects, the platform with the lowest fees and the largest existing user base has a structural advantage. Robinhood has both. Even capturing a small percentage of the projected market through its 27 million users could generate meaningful revenue. For more on the market opportunity, see our article on prediction market investing.

The Regulatory Backdrop

The fee structure exists within a regulatory framework that was clarified in 2024 when Kalshi won a landmark court battle against the CFTC. This established that prediction markets on political and economic events are legal in the United States. Robinhood’s entry into prediction markets came after this ruling, meaning it operates with regulatory clarity.

Robinhood itself is a regulated broker-dealer, which adds institutional credibility to its prediction market offering. For users concerned about the legitimacy of prediction markets, Robinhood’s participation signals that the category has reached mainstream acceptance. For more on the regulatory landscape, see our article on what is the Kalshi app.

The Infrastructure Investment Approach

Lango’s thesis is that you profit from prediction markets by investing in the infrastructure companies, not by placing bets. Robinhood is an infrastructure company. It provides the platform, the user base, the pricing, and the regulatory framework. Your investment thesis depends on the growth of the prediction market category, not on the outcome of any specific event.

This is what Lango calls profiting “without placing a single bet.” You are buying a stock, not making a prediction. If the category grows, Robinhood benefits regardless of who wins any election or whether the Fed cuts rates. For more on this approach, see our article on prediction market stocks.

The Coinbase Connection

Lango reveals a second free ticker: Coinbase (COIN). While Robinhood provides the mainstream trading platform, Coinbase provides the crypto infrastructure that platforms like Polymarket depend on. Polymarket runs on the Polygon network and uses USDC for settlement, and Coinbase is the primary U.S. exchange for USDC. Coinbase is also rolling out prediction markets to its own user base. For more, see our article on Polymarket stocks.

Is the Fee Advantage Sustainable?

The flat $0.01 per contract fee gives Robinhood a competitive advantage today, but pricing in fintech is notoriously difficult to sustain. Competitors can lower their fees. New entrants can offer even cheaper structures. The sustainable advantage is not the fee itself but the combination of low fees, a 27-million-user base, and an established regulatory framework.

For investors evaluating Robinhood, the fee structure is one component of the thesis. The larger story is that prediction markets represent a new revenue stream for a company with massive user reach and a proven ability to capture new trading categories. For more on Robinhood’s broader position, see our article on Robinhood brokerage fees.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.