Robinhood for Windows: Prediction Markets on Desktop

Robinhood’s expansion across desktop and mobile platforms is relevant to the prediction market thesis because it means the 27 million users who can access prediction markets are not limited to mobile-only trading. As we detail in our full review of the Prediction Markets presentation, Luke Lango identifies Robinhood (HOOD) as his main prediction market stock pick.

The Platform Reach

Robinhood started as a mobile-first trading app, but it has since expanded to desktop and web platforms. This matters for prediction markets because the broader the platform reach, the more users can participate. A user who trades on a desktop has a different experience than one who trades on a phone, and both represent potential prediction market participants.

The 27-million-user number is the key metric. These are people who already have funded accounts, are comfortable with the Robinhood interface, and can be offered prediction market contracts with minimal friction. Robinhood charges a flat $0.01 per contract, compared to Kalshi’s variable fees, giving it a pricing advantage. For more on the prediction market opportunity, see our article on Robinhood prediction markets.

The Partnership with Susquehanna

Robinhood has partnered with Susquehanna to offer prediction markets. Susquehanna is a major market maker and trading firm. The partnership means Robinhood provides the platform and users while Susquehanna provides the market-making infrastructure. This is a smart arrangement because it leverages Robinhood’s user base advantage while tapping Susquehanna’s institutional expertise.

For investors, the key point is that Robinhood is not building prediction market infrastructure from scratch. It is partnering with an established player, which reduces execution risk and accelerates time to market. For more on the broader thesis, see our article on prediction market stocks.

The Market Opportunity

Lango cites estimates suggesting the prediction market could grow from $64 billion today to $1 trillion by 2030. Trading volume is up 400 percent in recent quarters. In 2024, Kalshi won a landmark court battle against the CFTC, establishing legal clarity for prediction markets in the United States. Goldman Sachs has a team analyzing prediction markets and is reportedly building a prediction market trading desk.

If Robinhood captures even a modest share of the projected $1 trillion market through its 27-million-user base, the revenue impact could be material. The flat $0.01 per contract pricing gives Robinhood a competitive advantage over dedicated prediction market platforms that charge more. For more on the market size, see our article on prediction market investing.

The Coinbase Side Bet

Lango reveals a second free ticker: Coinbase (COIN). Coinbase owns the rails that every Polymarket trade rides on, since Polymarket runs on the Polygon network and uses USDC for settlement. Coinbase is the primary U.S. exchange for USDC and is rolling out prediction markets to its own user base. This means Coinbase benefits from prediction market growth regardless of which specific platform wins. For more, see our article on Polymarket stocks.

Robinhood as an Investment

Robinhood is a publicly traded company (NASDAQ: HOOD) that anyone can buy through a standard brokerage account. The prediction market opportunity is one component of its business, alongside stock trading, options trading, and crypto trading. The investment thesis is that prediction markets represent a new revenue stream for an existing platform with massive user reach.

The risks include exposure to broader market conditions, fintech competition, and the possibility that the $1 trillion market projection is optimistic. But for investors interested in the prediction market thesis, Robinhood is the most direct way to gain exposure. For more on the safety of Robinhood as an investment, see our article on whether Robinhood is safe to invest in.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.

The Platform Experience

Robinhood’s desktop and web platform has evolved significantly since the company’s early days as a mobile-only app. The Windows desktop experience provides full access to stock trading, crypto trading, options, and now prediction market contracts. Users can view their entire portfolio in one interface, which is a significant advantage over dedicated prediction market platforms that require separate accounts and separate funding.

The integration matters because prediction market trading is fundamentally different from stock trading. Users need real-time data, clear contract definitions, and easy execution. Robinhood’s platform, which has been refined over years of stock and crypto trading, provides a more polished experience than startup prediction market platforms.

For users who are new to prediction markets, the ability to trade through a familiar interface reduces the learning curve. You do not need to learn a new platform, understand blockchain mechanics, or navigate a crypto wallet. You simply open Robinhood, navigate to the prediction markets section, and trade contracts using the same interface you already use for stocks.

The Broader Prediction Market Thesis

Luke Lango’s thesis, as we detail in our full review, is that prediction markets are growing faster than both AI and crypto. Trading volume is up 400 percent in recent quarters, and estimates suggest the market could grow from $64 billion to $1 trillion by 2030. The “backdoor access” approach means investing in the infrastructure companies rather than placing bets.

Robinhood is the primary infrastructure play because of its 27-million-user base, flat $0.01 per contract pricing, and partnership with Susquehanna for market-making. For more on the investment thesis, see our Robinhood LLC account article. For the broader market context, see our prediction market investing article.

Considerations

The platform experience is important but it is not the investment thesis. The thesis is about Robinhood’s positioning as the low-cost, high-scale infrastructure provider for prediction markets. The Windows desktop experience is one component of that positioning. For investors evaluating HOOD as a stock, the key metrics are user growth, engagement, revenue per user, and the contribution of prediction market trading to overall revenue.

If you want to explore Lango’s full thesis, you can access the Prediction Markets presentation through InvestorPlace.