AppLovin Stock: Why Chaikin Cites It as Evidence

AppLovin stock is the single most repeated example in Marc Chaikin’s new 401(ai) presentation, and it is worth understanding why. The ad-technology company is not one of the five portfolio stocks the pitch sells; the actual 401(ai) names are membership content. AppLovin (APP) is something more useful to the argument: a public, checkable demonstration of the pitch’s core claims, that the winners of the AI economy often hide outside the obvious sectors, and that a rating system can flag them before the index funds arrive. We read the presentation end to end. Our full 401(ai) teardown covers it in detail.

The Call the Pitch Cites

The version of the AppLovin story told in the presentation is specific and dated. The Power Gauge, Chaikin’s 20-factor stock rating system, turned bullish on AppLovin in March 2023 at around $13 per share. What followed was one of the great runs of the AI era, and the pitch uses the stock as its exhibit for what an early signal looks like: a small, out-of-favor ad-tech name that most institutional desks were not watching, flagged before the move.

The deeper point Chaikin draws from it is about index funds, and it is the argument the whole presentation is organized around. AppLovin was not in the S&P 500 during its steepest climb. In the pitch’s words: “Applovin wasn’t in the S&P 500. In fact, it wouldn’t be added to the index for another two and a half years.” A retirement saver holding a standard index fund, the vehicle the 401(ai) pitch is aimed at, structurally missed the move that made AppLovin famous. By the time the index caught up, “the stock was here,” as the presentation puts it, high on the chart.

The Other Arm of the K

AppLovin’s second role in the pitch is as half of a pair. The 401(ai) is built on the frame that AI splits the economy into a K shape, a rising arm and a falling arm, and AppLovin is the pitch’s rising-arm example in advertising, set against WPP, the global agency incumbent, as the falling-arm example. Two companies in broadly the same business, selling attention, and very different five-year outcomes.

The paired divergences the presentation cites are real market history, and they are the strongest evidence the frame has: AppLovin versus WPP in advertising, Palantir (PLTR) versus Gartner in research and intelligence, Abercrombie & Fitch versus Tillys in specialty retail. In each pair, one company’s economics improved on AI-era economics while the comparable incumbent sagged. The pitch’s summary line: “I’m not investing in AI. I’m investing in what AI does to the numbers.”

What the Rating Actually Was

The honest caveats matter here, and the presentation volunteers some of them itself. A bullish Power Gauge rating in March 2023 at $13 is a verifiable claim about a rating date, but the pitch’s demonstrations are winners presented after the fact: every historical signal shown, AppLovin included, is a stock that went up. The one losing example in the presentation, Braze, was disclosed unprompted, with the candor we look for: “Of course, that’s investing. If I showed you five perfect stocks, you should stop watching. The Power Gauge is not a crystal ball. It never has been.”

Chaikin’s framing of what his system does is also more modest than a prediction: “Did your system know that Buffett was about to buy? No. I’m a quant, not a fortune teller.” The claim is that 20 factors moving together, “I think of them more like 20 witnesses,” identifies improving companies early, not that it sees the future. Whether that edge holds forward is exactly what a subscription tests.

Why It Matters for the Pitch

AppLovin serves a third purpose in the 401(ai) architecture: it answers the most common objection from the near-retirement audience the pitch targets. “NVIDIA already went up. I missed it” is met with “missed what, one stock, one part of the buildup.” The AppLovin story is the proof that the AI trade is not one name and one moment, that the value keeps migrating to new corners, from the chipmakers to the ad platforms to, in the pitch’s favorite examples, a pizza chain forecasting demand and a senior-living operator detecting falls. For a full explainer of that frame, see our full 401(ai) teardown.

The 401(ai) package built on that argument: a five-stock model portfolio with per-company rationale, a “Five Stocks to Sell Now” companion report for the falling arm, an eight-company waiting room of names Chaikin says need “more evidence,” and monthly updates when the picture changes. The value anchor is “over $2,000,” the actual price sits behind the order-page click, and the guarantee is a full 30-day refund. You can see the details in the presentation itself before deciding anything.

The Honest Read

AppLovin stock earned its place as the pitch’s lead exhibit: the call was real, the date was real, the index-fund lateness argument is a genuine structural fact, and the run was extraordinary. What the exhibit cannot prove is repeatability, and the pitch, to its credit, says so more directly than most. For more of this presenter’s track record, our Chaikin Analytics review and our Power Gauge explainer cover the system behind the call. One great example is evidence. A subscription is a bet on the next five.

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