A $49 newsletter betting on the rearmament decade

Behind the Markets is Dylan Jovine’s $49-a-year newsletter, and its current headline pitch is “The Arsenal: My #1 Defense Stock for the Rearmament Decade.” The thesis is simple on its face: Western militaries have spent three years drawing down stockpiles to arm Ukraine and Israel, and now they have to buy the weapons back. The single stock Jovine points to is Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT), the Israeli contractor behind a long list of missile-defense and artillery systems.

The pitch fits a pattern. Jovine has spent the last couple of years writing about gold, the dollar, and now defense, treating each as one piece of a single macro story about Western rearmament and currency stress. We walked through the earlier gold-themed promo in our Behind the Markets newsletter review, and the defense pitch reads as the next chapter in the same book.

What the promo claims, and what it does not

The headline claim in the promo is that Elbit’s order backlog has “swollen past $30 billion for the first time in its history.” That is true. StockGumshoe confirmed the number, and a $30 billion backlog is the strongest single fact in the pitch. It gives the business years of revenue visibility and explains why Jovine frames this as a decade-long setup rather than a quick trade.

The return claim is trickier. The promo says the stock is “up 121% since our recommendation.” That number is measured from Jovine’s own entry point, not from today. He first pitched Elbit early in 2024 around $200 a share, and the stock now trades near $800. A new subscriber signing up today does not receive that 121%. They get whatever the shares do from roughly $783 forward. The distinction matters, because it is the difference between a track record and a forward-looking bet at a much higher price.

Who is behind the newsletter

The analyst’s history is real. Jovine built his own broker-dealer on Wall Street by age 24, called the 2006 housing crash, and recommended Palantir near $7. Those are checkable facts, and they explain why readers give his macro calls a hearing. We have a full profile of Dylan Jovine that covers the track record in more detail, including how he structures his gold and dollar calls.

That history does not make the current pitch correct, and it does not change the price. Elbit has already more than doubled from Jovine’s early-2024 entry, and the stock now carries a forward multiple near 44 times next-year earnings of about $18 against roughly 10% revenue growth. The demand story is real. The valuation is the part worth interrogating, which is exactly what our Elbit Systems stock breakdown does.

The bottom line on the newsletter

Behind the Markets is a cheap, single-idea newsletter built on one analyst’s macro conviction. The rearmament thesis has a real factual spine: NATO members are converging on the 2% of GDP defense-spending guideline, several European governments are already beyond it, and combat-proven systems like Elbit’s carry a genuine procurement advantage because buyers know they work under fire.

The risk is that the easy money has already been made. A $30 billion backlog against a market cap north of $35 billion is a solid foundation, but it sits at a high multiple. Readers who subscribe are buying the analyst’s continued judgment, not the 121% return the promo leads with. For $49 a year, the newsletter is inexpensive as these things go, but the real question is whether a stock near $800 can keep rewarding buyers the way it rewarded the analyst who found it near $200.

How this compares to the earlier gold pitch

Jovine’s earlier gold-themed promo, which we covered alongside the newsletter itself, made a similar structural argument: a big macro force, a single high-conviction vehicle, and a low subscription price to unlock the specifics. The rearmament pitch follows the same template, and that matters because it tells you what you are actually buying. You are not buying a diversified service with dozens of picks. You are buying one analyst’s running macro thesis and the handful of stocks he attaches to it at any given time.

The defense idea is more conventional than the gold idea in one important way. Elbit is a large, liquid, profitable company with a public order book, not a speculative thesis built on a currency collapse. That makes the pitch easier to evaluate, because the numbers are all checkable. A $30 billion backlog, a market cap north of $35 billion, and roughly 44 times next-year earnings are facts you can verify without subscribing. The subscription is really for the analyst’s timing and his continued judgment, not for access to information you cannot find elsewhere.

At $49 a year, the newsletter sits near the bottom of the industry on price, which is a genuine point in its favor. The bar to justify the cost is low. The real question is whether the judgment that was clearly right on Elbit in early 2024 remains right at a share price that has already quadrupled. That is a question about the future, not the track record, and it is the one a new subscriber should be asking.

Ready to see the research? Click here to access Dylan Jovine’s report.

NewsletterVetter is an independent publication. We receive compensation from some of the services we review through affiliate links. Nothing on this site is investment advice. Always do your own research.