The “tiny stock powering Elon’s Megapod” in Dave Forest’s SpaceX Supercycle part two presentation resolves to First Phosphate Corp., a Quebec junior that trades on the Nasdaq through American depositary shares under the ticker PHOS. The pitch is seductive: a small-cap company with a “huge breakthrough” that could “easily soar by seven times” if Elon Musk signs a supply deal. The reality is more grounded, and worth understanding before the hype does the deciding for you.

The Reasoning Chain

Forest’s argument is genuinely clever. Musk recently trademarked the “Megapod,” described as a modular AI data center. A modular data center needs its own standalone power source. Standalone power points to grid-scale battery storage, which points to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry, which points to phosphate as the critical raw material.

The giveaway clue is a production figure: 900,000 tons a year. Every proposed lithium project in the US and Canada combined cannot reach 900,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, and the largest graphite projects top out near 175,000 tonnes. Phosphate is the only battery material where a single North American junior targets that exact number.

The Project Itself

First Phosphate’s flagship is the Bégin-Lamarche property in Quebec. It is a Preliminary Economic Assessment stage project targeting 900,000 tonnes per year of beneficiated phosphate concentrate over a 23-year open-pit mine, plus a 380,000-tonne magnetite byproduct. That is a real, defined resource.

What it is not is a producing mine. First Phosphate has no revenue, no offtake agreement, and no signed deal with Musk or anyone else. The company is advancing toward a full feasibility study, with construction targeted for 2028 and commercial production for 2029. It went public in 2023 and was briefly called First Potash in 2022. Each Nasdaq ADR represents ten shares on the Canadian Securities Exchange.

The Seven Times Your Money Claim

This is where the math deserves the most scrutiny. A seven-times return on First Phosphate’s roughly $315 million market cap implies the company would need to become worth about $2.2 billion, on the back of a hypothetical Musk offtake that does not exist.

The historical comparison offered as proof is Piedmont Lithium, which soared 395 percent in a single day when Musk signed an exclusive supply agreement. The comparison has a hole in it: Piedmont was a developer with a defined project and a signed, exclusive agreement when it popped. First Phosphate has a PEA and a hope. More fundamentally, phosphate is not scarce the way lithium is. The whole reason LFP batteries are attractive is that iron and phosphate are abundant, cheap materials relative to nickel and cobalt. A phosphate junior betting its future on scarcity pricing is swimming against the economics of its own chemistry, a point we develop in our lithium iron phosphate battery explainer.

How to Think About It

None of this makes First Phosphate a bad company. It is a speculative junior with a plausible project in a growing chemistry, and the LFP grid-storage market it targets is directionally sound. But it is a pre-revenue lottery ticket on LFP adoption, not a “seven times your money” sure thing resting on a deal that has not happened and may never happen.

The stock closed near $16.66 on August 19, 2026, up about 15 percent from the $14.50 tease price, so some of the enthusiasm is already priced in. The Megapod itself is a June 2026 trademark filing, not a shipping product, and the Panasonic, Samsung, and LG deals cited in the promo are battery cell supply agreements, not phosphate offtakes. We break down the broader supply chain in our phosphate mining stocks explainer.

For context on how Forest approaches these names, our Dave Forest profile covers his background in resource speculation and his record of surfacing obscure supply-chain companies.

What Would Have to Go Right

For the seven-times scenario to play out, a lot of specific things have to happen in sequence. The feasibility study has to hold up. Permitting in Quebec has to stay on schedule. Financing for a mine and a processing plant has to come together in a market that has cooled toward juniors. And then, the big one, an offtake with a battery maker, a storage developer, or Tesla itself has to be signed.

None of those steps is impossible, and First Phosphate is far from the only junior chasing exactly this outcome. The more realistic way to size the opportunity is as an option on LFP adoption rather than a near-dated catalyst. The company’s own timeline points to 2029 production, which is a long time to hold a speculative position through.

That long runway is also why the offer terms matter. The Critical Assets letter runs $2,250 a year with no refunds, only a 90-day credit toward other Brownstone products. That is a steep, non-refundable commitment for a pair of commodity picks, both of which are publicly listed and freely researchable. For the full picture on the second pick in this promo, see our Ivanhoe Mines explainer.

Ready to see the research? Click here to access Dave Forest’s report.

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