Gold Investment: The Strategy Beyond Bullion

Gold investment has entered a new phase. Since Dylan Jovine recommended gold at $1,800 in 2021, the metal has more than doubled, touching an all-time high near $5,600 in January 2026 before settling around $4,000. But Jovine’s BTM Gold War presentation argues that buying gold is only half the strategy. The bigger opportunity, based on historical evidence, is in gold stocks.

As we detail in our full review of the BTM Gold War presentation, the case for gold stocks over bullion is grounded in data from two previous gold revaluations.

Why Gold Keeps Rising

The structural case for gold is stronger now than at any point in recent memory. The European Central Bank has confirmed that gold has overtaken U.S. Treasury bonds as the number one reserve asset held by the world’s central banks. Twenty-seven percent of global reserves now sit in gold. Twenty-two percent in U.S. debt. The value of gold in foreign central bank vaults is approaching $4 trillion, quadruple what it was a decade ago.

China has bought gold for 20 straight months while dumping U.S. Treasury debt from $1.32 trillion to roughly $659 billion. Goldman Sachs estimates China’s real buying at 4.8 times the official figure. The latest survey of reserve managers found a record number planning to add gold, and not one planning to reduce.

Jovine called this move in 2021 when he wrote: “The world is entering a new cycle of war. Russia and China are trying to flip the international script just like Germany did in 1914.” Wall Street called gold a relic. Today it is up more than 100 percent from his call. For more on the price action, see our gold price analysis.

The Case for Stocks Over Bullion

The historical record shows that gold stocks dramatically outperform bullion during revaluations. In 1934, when FDR revalued gold from $20.67 to $35, the Dow collapsed 73 percent. But Homestake Mining rose 474 percent. Dome Mines climbed 558 percent. Homestake became the highest-priced active stock on the New York Stock Exchange and paid $56 per share in dividends in 1935 alone, nearly the entire purchase price on a stock that had cost $65.

In the 1970s rewrite, gold climbed 276 percent in the final two years. But a basket of top junior gold miners climbed 23-fold, a 2,200 percent rise, roughly eight times the metal. Copper Lake returned more than 10,000 percent. Every $10,000 became more than $1 million.

The reason is leverage. When gold rises $100, a coin holder gains $100 per ounce. But a mining company gains $100 per ounce on every ounce in its reserves. If a company has millions of ounces in the ground, a $100 rise rewrites the value of the entire deposit at once. For more on this dynamic, see our article on buying gold coins vs. gold stocks.

The Arsenal vs. Kinross

Jovine presents two gold investment approaches in his presentation. The first is the Arsenal, a tiny American gold miner he describes as “the absolute prime candidate for America’s next strategic investment.” The Arsenal is roughly one-fiftieth the size of Newmont, produces no revenue yet, but holds one of the richest open-pit gold deposits in the country and is backed by nearly $3 billion in EXIM Bank financing. John Paulson has invested $185 million in the company.

The second is Kinross Gold (KGC), which Jovine gives away for free. Kinross is a producer, meaning it profits from the price of gold. The Arsenal is what Jovine calls a weapon: it profits from the policy of gold. As he puts it: “Kinross rides the wave. The Arsenal is welded to the hand that makes the wave.”

Kinross trades near 12 times earnings, roughly half the market average. Wall Street’s average price target sits at $40.24, about 74 percent above recent prices. Its flagship American operation is a massive Alaskan gold mine literally named Fort Knox. For more on Kinross, see our Kinross Gold analysis.

The 96-to-1 Gap

The structural case for gold investment is reinforced by the 96-to-1 gap. The U.S. Treasury values its 261.5 million ounces of gold at $42.22 per ounce, giving a book value of about $11 billion. At market price, the same gold is worth over $1 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: “We’re going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet for the American people.” The Federal Reserve published revaluation research. Congress is advancing a gold audit bill.

If Washington revalues its gold, the effect on gold stocks could be dramatic. For more on this concept, see our analysis of the gold revaluation thesis. For the broader macro picture, see our article on de-dollarization and gold.

How to Approach Gold Investment

The right approach depends on your risk tolerance. Physical gold is insurance: it cannot go to zero, but it also will not deliver 10,000 percent returns. Gold producers like Kinross offer leveraged exposure with operational risk. Early-stage developers like the Arsenal offer maximum leverage but carry the risk that the mine never reaches production.

Jovine’s framework is to own both. Kinross for the producer exposure, the Arsenal for the policy play. And the historical data supports the idea that gold stocks, not bullion, are where the largest gains have been made during revaluations.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.