Gold War: The Monetary Conflict Between Superpowers

The phrase “gold war” sounds dramatic, but Dylan Jovine’s BTM Gold War presentation makes a documented case that a monetary conflict between the United States and China is underway. This is not a conspiracy theory. It is recorded in central bank data, Treasury reports, federal filings, and executive orders. As we detail in our full review of the BTM Gold War presentation, both sides are making moves that are verifiable and significant.

China’s Four Escape Moves

China has been executing a systematic escape from the dollar system since February 2022. Jovine documents four moves, each recorded in official data.

First, China dumped U.S. Treasury debt from $1.32 trillion to roughly $659 billion. Cut in half. China’s holdings are now at their lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Second, China’s central bank bought gold for 20 straight months, its longest buying streak in at least 10 years. One of those purchases, made in June, was its biggest since 2023, during gold’s worst quarterly drop in 13 years. When gold dipped, Beijing accelerated.

Third, China hides the true count. Beijing admits to about 2,313 tonnes. Goldman Sachs estimates the real figure at 4.8 times the official number. China’s true hoard could be double or triple what it reports.

Fourth, China is building a parallel gold pricing system. The Shanghai Gold Exchange opened a vault in Hong Kong that settles contracts in yuan with physical delivery. Expansion is planned for Singapore, Zurich, and Dubai. For a century, gold has been priced in London and New York in dollars. China is building the third city, in its own currency. For more detail, see our article on China gold reserves.

America’s Counterattack

Jovine argues that China spent four years digging an escape tunnel, but the tunnel exits into a vault America owns. The United States holds 8,133 tonnes of gold, more than Germany and Italy combined, and three and a half times what China officially admits to owning. Even taking the highest estimate of China’s hidden buying and tripling the official count, America still holds more.

The counterattack is documented in six government moves over 14 months. On March 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order designating gold a strategic mineral. Through 2025 and 2026, the Bureau of Land Management cleared the runway for American gold mines. On August 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve published revaluation research. On November 19, 2025, the gold audit bill reached the Senate. On May 21, 2026, the EXIM Bank voted unanimously to approve nearly $3 billion for a gold mine. And the company’s federal filings contain “substantial support and partnership from the Department of War.” For more on the financing, see our article on EXIM Bank gold mine financing.

The Board Only One Side Can Win

Jovine frames the conflict as a chess board where only one side can win. China has committed its monetary escape to gold. Everything, the Treasury sales, the secret buying, the offshore vaults, the currency plans, funnels into gold. But the United States holds more gold than any nation on Earth and has held it for 90 years through every crisis.

The argument is that Washington will force the contest onto the metal, where America’s lead is untouchable, and chain the dollar to gold before China finishes its escape. Jovine puts it bluntly: “Your rival just bet its monetary survival on an asset you dominate more completely than any nation has ever dominated anything. What do you do? You don’t fight the gold war. You end it.”

The 96-to-1 Gap

The financial pressure point is the 96-to-1 gap. The U.S. values its 261.5 million ounces of gold at $42.22 per ounce, giving a book value of about $11 billion. At market price, the same gold is worth over $1 trillion. That gap represents nearly $1 trillion in unrealized value. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: “We’re going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet for the American people.” For more on this, see our article on the gold revaluation concept.

The Arsenal

At the center of the counterattack is a company Jovine calls “The Arsenal.” It is a tiny American gold miner, roughly one-fiftieth the size of Newmont, that holds one of the richest open-pit gold deposits in the country. It also carries antimony, a critical mineral China has banned from exporting to the U.S. The EXIM Bank has committed nearly $3 billion to the project. John Paulson has invested $185 million. For more on the company, see our article on gold mining investment.

The Government’s Buying Machine

The federal government has become a direct shareholder in 26 companies over the past 18 months, deploying $23.9 billion out of $205 billion authorized. MP Materials surged 226 percent after the Pentagon became its largest shareholder. Trilogy Metals jumped 402 percent in a week. Intel soared over 500 percent. When this machine picks a company, the stock gaps. For more on the pattern, see our article on gold mining stocks.

You Are Already In This Trade

Jovine’s most provocative point: “You do not get to sit this one out. Every rewrite in American history was paid for by the people holding cash.” Holding dollars is a position. The question is whether you are on the paying side or the collecting side. For investors who want gold stock exposure, Jovine gives away Kinross Gold (KGC), a major American producer trading near 12 times earnings. For more, see our Kinross Gold analysis.

The gold war is not coming. It is here. The question is which side you are on.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.