The stock, not the story

Absci (ABSI) trades around $10.71 a share, roughly nine percent above the $9.82 reference price in Alexander Green’s Oxford Club promo. The ad frames Absci as a sub-$10 microcap most investors have never heard of, but the price history tells a more useful story than the tease. Absci traded between roughly $1.60 and $5 for most of 2022 and 2023, ran toward $12 after an encouraging June safety readout, and now sits just under $11 with a market cap around $1.69 billion.

That history changes what the stock actually is. A buyer near $2 was paying for a platform with no clinical momentum. A buyer at $10.71 is paying for a company with real partners, a clinical-stage lead asset, and a defined catalyst calendar. The “undiscovered” framing is stale; the real question is whether the current price fairly reflects what the market already knows. For the full picture of what the company does, see our Absci Corporation explainer.

The market cap mismatch

The clearest disconnect in the promo is the valuation. Green describes Absci as worth “around 750 million dollars,” but the company is worth about $1.69 billion, more than twice that figure. The “sub-$10 microcap” story was accurate in 2022 and 2023, but it quietly recycles a 2022 discovery narrative into a 2026 pitch. A buyer today is not getting in ahead of the crowd; they are paying roughly double the valuation the ad implies.

The revenue forecasts are a different kind of stretch. The promo cites “185% growth this year” and “an additional 300%” in 2027, which sounds explosive until you see the base. Absci’s revenue is minimal and lumpy, driven mostly by milestone payments from the Merck and AstraZeneca partnerships, and both are still in early research and development after several years with no clinical-stage compound yet produced. A company growing from $5 million to $14 million is up 185 percent, but that is not the kind of growth that supports a royalty-business narrative.

The royalty model, on its own timeline

The headline promise is that Absci becomes “the world’s next big royalty business,” collecting payments while pharma partners handle testing, approval, and marketing. That is genuinely how this corner of biotech works, and it is fair to describe Absci’s potential that way. But royalties arrive when drugs are on the market, and Absci is several clinical years away. The first real test is the ABS-201 proof-of-concept readout in the second half of 2026, followed by fuller data in early 2027. We explain the mechanics of that model in our best royalty stocks piece. We walk through the specifics in our Oxford Club’s ‘Sub-$10 AI Drug Stock’ — Absci, the Stock… piece.

The catalysts that actually move it

What matters for the stock in the next eighteen months is a specific, knowable calendar. Preliminary proof-of-concept data for ABS-201 is expected in the second half of 2026, fuller proof in early 2027, a Phase 2 readout in endometriosis before year end, and a hoped-for Phase 3 in hair loss as soon as late 2027. These are the events that will move the price, not the royalty narrative.

The balance sheet has been reinforced along the way. The AMD collaboration came with a $20 million investment in January 2025, and Eli Lilly put in $40 million tied to the lead program. Those are votes of confidence from partners that can actually underwrite a drug program, and they blunt the dilution risk that defines most early-stage biotech. What they do not do is guarantee the clinical data lands where the bull case needs it to.

The bull case, in miniature

The competitor comparison cuts both ways. Veradermics is in late Phase 3 with an oral hair-loss treatment and carries a market cap around $5 billion on that single asset. That is a useful yardstick: if one late-stage hair-loss drug can support $5 billion, Absci at $1.69 billion is arguably being valued mostly for its AI platform and partnerships, with ABS-201 as a meaningful option on top.

That is a reasonable setup, and it is the honest bull case. It is just not the “absolute no brainer” the ad describes. The right way to size it is as a platform with optionality, where the near-term driver is a single clinical readout rather than a steady royalty stream. For a framework on how to evaluate the sector, see our AI drug discovery stocks guide.

The fine print, for the record

The subscription runs $1,995 a year with a 60-day partial refund, minus a 10% refund fee, and the “$100,000 of my own money” line has been repeated since 2022. The pitch also leans on an older “NVIDIA partner” credential when the more recent hardware relationship is with AMD. None of that changes the clinical story, which is what actually matters, but it does mean the “discover this microcap before everyone else” framing has a shelf life problem. A buyer today is making a bet on the ABS-201 data, not on a secret.

Ready to see the research? Click here to access Alexander Green’s report.

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