Forge Platform: Private Markets and Prediction Markets

The Forge platform and similar private market exchanges represent the broader trend of financial markets expanding beyond traditional public stock exchanges into new categories of tradable instruments. As we detail in our full review of the Prediction Markets presentation, Luke Lango argues that prediction markets represent the next expansion in this trend, creating opportunities for infrastructure companies like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN).

The Expansion of Tradable Categories

Financial markets have continuously expanded the range of what can be traded. Public stock exchanges let you trade shares in public companies. Private market platforms like Forge let you trade shares in private companies before they go public. Options exchanges let you trade derivatives. Crypto exchanges let you trade digital assets. Prediction markets let you trade on event outcomes.

Each expansion followed a similar pattern. A new category emerged, regulatory clarity was established, platforms scaled, and infrastructure companies captured the growth. Prediction markets are in the early stages of this pattern. The 2024 Kalshi court victory against the CFTC established regulatory clarity. Now platforms are scaling. For more on the regulatory landscape, see our article on what is the Kalshi app.

Robinhood: The Mainstream Platform

Robinhood has partnered with Susquehanna to offer prediction markets to its 27 million users. The flat $0.01 per contract pricing gives it a competitive advantage over dedicated prediction market platforms. Robinhood represents the mainstream platform approach to the prediction market category, similar to how it pioneered zero-commission stock trading.

If prediction markets grow from $64 billion to $1 trillion by 2030, as Lango projects, the platform with the largest existing user base has a structural advantage. Robinhood’s 27 million users are already comfortable trading on the platform. Adding prediction markets is an extension of the existing product, not a new category requiring user acquisition. For more, see our article on Robinhood prediction markets.

Coinbase: The Infrastructure Layer

Coinbase (COIN) owns the rails that every Polymarket trade rides on. Polymarket runs on the Polygon network and uses USDC for settlement. Coinbase is the primary U.S. exchange for USDC. This means Coinbase provides the infrastructure layer for prediction markets that operate on blockchain, similar to how Forge provides the infrastructure layer for private market trading.

Additionally, Coinbase is rolling out prediction markets to its own user base. This dual position means Coinbase benefits from prediction market growth regardless of which specific platform wins. For more, see our article on Polymarket stocks.

The Structural Forces

Lango identifies five structural forces driving prediction market growth. Regulatory clarity from the Kalshi court victory. A better product than traditional gambling. Real-time forecasting utility that broadcasters and analysts use. Institutional interest from Goldman Sachs. And an economic stress parallel to the 1970s Vegas gaming boom.

Trading volume is up 400 percent in recent quarters. The market could grow from $64 billion to $1 trillion by 2030. These numbers reflect the early-stage, rapidly-scaling nature of the category. For more on the structural forces, see our article on prediction market investing.

The Investment Thesis

The investment thesis for both HOOD and COIN is that prediction markets represent a new, fast-growing revenue stream for companies with existing user bases and infrastructure. You are not investing in a prediction market platform. You are investing in the companies that serve all prediction market platforms. This is the picks-and-shovels approach.

Both stocks are publicly traded and available through any brokerage. Lango reveals them as free tickers before the paywall. The risks include market conditions, competition, and the possibility that the $1 trillion projection is optimistic. But the structural forces are real. For more on the investment approach, see our article on prediction market stocks. For more on the institutional angle, see our article on the Nasdaq private market.

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.

The Private Market Connection

Forge Global operates a platform for trading private company shares, which is adjacent to but distinct from the prediction market thesis. The connection Lango draws is that both private markets and prediction markets represent the democratization of access to investment categories that were previously restricted to accredited investors and institutions.

The prediction market growth story is about retail investors gaining access to a new category of financial instrument. The private market growth story is about retail investors gaining access to pre-IPO companies. Both are enabled by regulatory changes, technology platforms, and a broader trend toward democratization in finance.

The Infrastructure Angle

Lango’s thesis, as we detail in our full review, is about investing in the infrastructure behind prediction markets rather than placing bets. The free tickers he reveals are Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), both of which provide platforms where prediction market contracts can be traded by retail investors.

The infrastructure approach makes sense because it captures the growth of the category without requiring you to predict specific outcomes. Whether a particular prediction market contract pays out or not, the platform that facilitates the trade earns a fee. As volume grows from $64 billion to a projected $1 trillion by 2030, the platforms that facilitate that volume capture the revenue.

For more on Robinhood specifically, see our Robinhood LLC account article. For the broader market thesis, see our prediction market stocks article.

Considerations

The prediction market category is still in its early stages. The $1 trillion projection by 2030 is an estimate that depends on regulatory stability, user adoption, and continued growth in trading volume. The infrastructure approach reduces risk compared to placing direct bets, but it is still exposed to the overall growth of the category.

For investors interested in the prediction market thesis, the key is to identify which platforms have the largest user bases, the lowest fees, and the strongest regulatory positioning. Robinhood leads on user base and fees. Coinbase leads on crypto-native positioning. For more on the competitive landscape, see our Kalshi stock analysis.

If you want to explore Lango’s full thesis, you can access the Prediction Markets presentation through InvestorPlace.